How Did Obama’s Approval Rating Jump So High: Is It A Fluke
By Lynn Ashton on May 21, 2011, 10:28 am
Political analyst Cook cites Gallup’s tracking polls conducted through Tuesday that put Obama’s job-approval rating at 48%. That’s higher than Obama’s weekly approval averages of 43% to 44% before the May 2 raid but not as good as the 51% score he received in the week immediately after the attack. Cook argues that when it comes to approval ratings for Obama, the more important focus should be on how the U.S. economy continues to sputter. He said Obama will enjoy some “residual benefits” from the attack but will probably not “reap a strong and long-lasting” boost in his overall approval rating.
Brief Spike
Two pollsters from the Republican firm Public Opinion Strategies offer the most convincing explanation for the modest and seemingly brief spike. In a May 12 blog post, Glen Bolger and Jim Hobart laid out five reasons. First, the event that precipitated the higher approval ratings was good news rather than bad news. Ratings bumps are larger, Bolger and Hobart note, when “the major military/national security event is bad news, with September 11 being the most prominent example. These events result in a rally-around-the-flag effect that often produces large and sustained bumps. Positive events, like the first [Reagan-]Gorbachev summit and the capture of Saddam Hussein, more often produce smaller and/or shorter bumps in presidential approval.” As sad as that sounds, it’s probably right. Crisis brings us together; success is soon forgotten.
More Think He Deserves Reelection
At the same time, the AP poll also found that 53% of Americans now think Obama deserves to be reelected next year, while 43% say otherwise. That’s a marked improvement from March when 50% said he deserved reelection, but nearly as many, 47%, said he did not. And it’s a huge turnaround from last November, when a 54% majority said the president did not deserve to be reelected, versus 39% who said he did.
Political Impact
The political impact was important but not for the reasons you might think. Our sense is that the poll bump from the bin laden killing was going to be single digits and short term and it has been borne out so far. These types of events almost never lead to lasting gains in the headline approval rating. However, they can contribute to a more substantive shift in opinion. So, while Gallup and others have shown the President’s approval rating returning to pre-bin Laden levels, the data suggests that there has been a meaningful drop in Obama’s disapproval rating. This is important because it means that some swing voters (Independents and soft partisans) are reconsidering the President.
